Again China's giant rocket will fall from space after delivering cargo into orbit. This rocket debris is predicted to fall to Earth in the coming days, on Sunday (31/7).
The object in question is the 22.5 ton Long March 5B rocket core stage. The rocket will return to Earth after being launched into orbit to deliver the second module of the Tiangong space station on July 24.
The rocket will likely stay in orbit for about a week, according to a report by the Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) under the Aerospace Corporation.
They analyzed data collected by the Space Force's Space Surveillance Network system and predicted that the rocket would enter Earth's atmosphere on July 31, 2022, at around 12.30 WIB with a time difference of about 22 hours.
Estimates of the location of the rocket's fall will continue to be updated and a more accurate estimate of the location will be found in the next few days. Based on its orbit, the rocket's reentry is likely to occur in an area of approximately 41 degrees north latitude and 41 degrees south latitude.
"Due to the uncontrolled nature of the fall, there is a high probability that intact debris will land in a populated area -- more than 88% of the world's population lives under a potential trail of re-entry debris," said Aerospace Corporation as quoted by Gizmodo. , Thursday (28/7/2022)
Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:
31 Jul 2022 07:52 UTC ± 22 hours
Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates: https://t.co/SxrMtcJnj0 pic.twitter.com/xsDqC8rOEt
— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) July 26, 2022
Aerospace Corporation added this object will burn when it enters the atmosphere. But because of its jumbo size, there will be some parts that may not burn in the atmosphere and fall to Earth.
"The general rule is that 20-40% of the mass of a large object will fall to Earth, but the exact number will depend on the design of the object. In this case, we estimate around five to nine tonnes," they said.
Core stage rockets that reach orbit are usually designed to descend to Earth immediately after launch. This part of the rocket can be 'steered' to land in areas that are not inhabited by humans, such as forests or the sea, or be landed vertically for reuse in the style of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
Although the fall was out of control and the location of the crash is uncertain, the risk of someone being injured or dying from a rocket crash is very small, around 1:1,000 to 1:230, according to data from Aerospace Corporation analyst Ted Muelhaupt.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the likelihood of this space debris harming aircraft flights or to people and property on Earth is very low. He said China would continue to monitor the location of the rocket and ensure that most of its components would be destroyed in the atmosphere.
This is not the first time the Long March 5B rocket has entered orbit after being launched and crashed into Earth uncontrollably. Two years ago, fragments of a Long March 5B rocket fell off the west coast of Africa, in Ivory Coast.
In May 2021, the Long March 5B rocket again crashed out of control after launching the Tianhe module, which is the core module of the Tiangong space station. Fortunately, this rocket debris fell in the Indian Ocean so there were no casualties.