As a country that is in the 'Ring of Fire' region, Indonesia is one that is prone to earthquakes. However, can earthquakes be predicted when they will come?
Launching Scientific American, earthquakes are things that cannot be predicted. Even the US Geological Survey (USGS) wrote a warning regarding earthquake predictions.
"Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have predicted major earthquakes. We do not know how and we do not expect any future predictions to occur," they wrote.
Then why can't earthquakes be predicted, while other disasters such as floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes can still be predicted even with different accuracy calculations? It's good to know about earthquakes in advance.
How do tectonic earthquakes happen?
Our understanding of what makes earthquakes happen is based on the theory of plate tectonics, or the idea that Earth's outer crust is made up of moving plates of rock. These plates can slide over the rocky but softer layer beneath, called the Earth's mantle, which sits above the molten material of the Earth's core.
Our modern theory of plate tectonics has only been around since the 1950s and it is thought that there are nine main plates. Along the boundaries of each of these plates are numerous fault lines, where most of the planet's known earthquakes occur.
Sometimes during relative drift, tectonic plates collide with one another. As the moving interior collided, there was energy that radiated in waves through the rocky surface of the Earth. These waves shake the ground as they move through them, and earthquakes occur.
The challenge of predicting earthquakes
Effective earthquake prediction includes four components: date, time, location and magnitude of the earthquake. However, it is difficult to see the signs shown by nature and draw conclusions about the relationship between these signs and the earthquake.
Sometimes seismic events also occur without aftershocks. Earthquakes originate several km below the surface of the Earth so of course there are other possible indicators that could be a sign, but we cannot easily detect them here on the surface of the Earth. Moreover, we also do not know what we should observe down there.
Another difficulty in earthquake prediction is distinguishing between small earthquakes (which are also difficult to predict when they will come) and major earthquakes. There is no simple way to decipher whether an early warning sign is a sign of a large destructive earthquake or just a minor one.