The spread of the Alpha COVID-19 variant in the UK is due to changes in the biology of the virus and is exacerbated by the increasing number of people infected bringing the variant to some parts of the UK. Experts call it a super-seed event or 'super-seed'.
The results of the largest philological analysis ever published in the journal Science, display the spread of this variant from its origin in Kent and Greater London in November 2020 to all regions except Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on 19 January 2021.
Study lead author Dr Moritz Kraemer and Branco Weiss Research Fellow in the Oxford Department of Zoology said: “In early December 2020, COVID-19 transmission centers in the UK shifted rapidly from the North West and North East to London and South East, as Alpha variants were detained.
"As people travel from London and the South East to other parts of the UK, they are 'sowing' a new variant delivery network. This continues as a national 'super seeding' event and will not slow down until early January," Kraemer said., Tuesday ( 27/7/2021).
"Although travel was restricted and after travel restrictions were introduced on December 20, there was continued exponential growth in terms of the Alpha variant."
The rapid spread of the Alpha variant across the UK led to initial reports showing that it can be contagious up to 80% more than the original strain.
Population mobility has a significant impact
This study shows that mobility significantly affects virus spread and early growth rate. The researchers stressed the need for epidemiologists to work closely with virologists and geneticists to make accurate transmission estimates for new variants.
Professor Oliver Pybus, lead researcher from the Oxford Martin Program on Genomic Pandemics, explained that the estimate of Alpha transmission compared to previous strains was initially 80%, but declined over time.
"We found the emergence of Alpha to be a combination of genetic changes and temporary viral epidemiology. The early wave factors of Alpha variant exports to places in the UK with low infection rates, from major outbreaks in Kent and Greater London, explain why the virus was initially introduced. spread so fast, "he said.
"The Alpha variant does contain genetic changes that make it more contagious. It's a 30% to 40% chance that the Alpha variant is more contagious than the original strain. And initial estimates are higher because we don't know how severely its growth is. variants appear and spread in other countries around the world, we must be careful to consider this phenomenon when assessing the sustainability of new variants.
Probably occurs in the Delta variant
Dr. Kraemer concluded that when a new variant emerged, they expected it to spread significantly before travel restrictions were imposed. This is also what may happen to the Delta variant.
Given the scale of the current epidemic, it appears that the UK is now a major “exporter” of Delta variants across Europe and several other parts of the world.
"The UK has decided to relax its restrictions because of our high vaccination rates and the belief that we have protected the most vulnerable people in society. But the same is not the case in most other countries," he said.
"Delta variants could begin this process again elsewhere. We highlight the urgent need for faster and fairer distribution of vaccines around the world."
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